A Publisher's Conversation with Authors: What to Expect from Book Sales

 

It is Tuesday. Time to tall turkey. Monday's madness is over, and Wednesday will take us over the hump, so Tuesday it is--for some serious discussion with authors. Tuesday talks mean to address authors in waiting and self-published authors who would like to go a more traditional route or who would at least like to take their steps with a publisher by their side.

Today's topic addresses book sales expectations. Most authors, especially first-time authors, expect to sell thousands of copies. Even with large publishers, that does not happen routinely. A few books sell well; most books sell slowly. Booksellers are not very transparent with their figures, but we do "know" some things.

At launch

• The first day, week, month see the most sales.
• Typical sales are about 100 books the first month.
• Generally, book signings at high end bookstores will sell 15-20 books; events coordinators will rarely order more than 25 books for a launch and astute small presses will not agree to large quantities of sales because they know they will be saddled with returns. (That does not mean there are not exceptions. One local Barnes & Noble signing sold out all 25 books in less than an hour; fortunately, being local, we had brought inventory with us and were able to provide additional copies -- still, B&N had to jump through some hoops in order to meet corporate's requirements vis-a-vis book procurement procedures.)
• Pre-publication efforts make a huge difference. 
• The number one indicator of how many books you will sell is how big your followership is--and does every follower know how to get your book. 
• If you have 50K followers on social media, the recommended number for good book sales, you can expect to sell 350-500 copies of your book when it comes out, if the followers have been primed. If you have 10K followers, you may sell only about 35 books. Figures are hard to come by, but those are the ones being bandied about this year.
• If you have a readymade market, such as a large organization that looks up to you, you can beat the average. We had a Bible studies scholar at a megachurch sell 422 copies of  the first day. They had been waiting with baited breath for this book to come out! It sold well for the following few years; the solid start and word of mouth helped, as did a national award. This is the exception, not the norm. (Another example would be The Shack, written by pastors of a megachurch who promoted the book for quite some time before it came out.)
• If your book has been reviewed prior to publication by a respected reviewer like Library Journal, you will almost certainly see more sales than if it has not been so reviewed. (The jury is out, in my opinion, whether presence on Net Galley actually pays off in ultimate sales.)
• Working with a PR professional can also make a difference though -- sorry, to say this -- is often not cost-effective. At what price do you want to get more of your books out there? 
• If you are trying to get a message out and therefore need more books sold to get the message out and to get you invited to coaching and teaching opprtunities, this is a sensible approach. 
• If you are trying to make a living off your writing (very, very, very few authors can do that), this is probably not a sensible approach. 

Ongoing Expectations

• First-year sales figures for self-published authors and small presses can be discouragingly low. (This can be the case also for large publishers, but they can "bury" the poor sellers, which may be the majority of new books, with huge sales from block busters by big-name authors -- not something that is accessible to a small press, let alone self-publisher.)
• Self-publishers average, according to the latest stats, 100 books the first year and perhaps a couple hundred over the lifetime of a book.
• Traditionally published books generally average 250-300 copies the first year (assuming that authors actively promote their books over the full duration of the year), then drop off to where 500 copies over a lifetime is considered good sales. That is not to say that a lot of books do not beat that number; it is an average, so some books sell considerably fewer to create that balance.
• Long-term total sales numbers do not reflect the actual number of books being read. Once several dozen books are "out there" in the public arena, readers start swapping them for other books through book clubs, give them away to library sales, sell them on ebay and the like. Given the large market in used books, it is impossible to know how many people have actually read a given book. Most likely, it is several multiplications more than the number of new copies 

The bottom line is that getting stats is a headache and nearly impossible. Bookscan and other programs that pretend to track sales (pretend really is the right word -- they try, but the industry is too opaque for it to work well) often over-report and under-report. You can probably get the most accurate figures from your printer. Why? If you are using POD, the printer has to print each book and will know how many have been printed. That does not equate to how many times any printed book is purchased, re-sold, and read.

Lesson for today's Tuesday talk: Forget about numbers and focus on consistently promoting your book. Promoting your book is a life-long endeavor; slack off, and the sales go away -- the impact can be compounded just from a little lack of attention.

Read more posts about publishing HERE.

The Tuesday talks reflect real discussions between the management of MSI Press LLC and our own authors or those would-be authors who come through our doors but don't make the cut--yet. If you have a topic you would like addressed, leave the question in the comment section. Chances are, in our 18 years of publishing first-time and experiences authors, we have had a conversation with one of our authors that we can share with you.

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