A Publisher’s Conversation with Authors: Do Free Kindle Promotions Really “Sell More Books”?

 

Every few months, an author will tell me—often with great confidence—that “marketers say a free Kindle promotion sells more books than a Kindle Countdown Deal.” It’s a claim that sounds bold, counterintuitive, and exciting. It’s also a claim that refuses to die, even though Amazon’s ecosystem has changed dramatically.

So, let’s talk about it plainly.

The short answer:

Free promotions generate more downloads.
Countdown Deals generate more sales.

Downloads and sales are not the same thing, and Amazon does not treat them as the same thing.

Where the myth came from:

There was a moment in Amazon’s early KDP Select era (2011–2014) when free days could catapult a book into the Top 100 Free list, and that visibility sometimes spilled over into paid sales afterward. Marketers who built their playbooks during that period still speak as if nothing has changed.

But the platform has changed. The algorithms have changed. Reader behavior has changed. And the relationship between free and paid charts has changed most of all.

Why free promotions rarely outperform Countdown Deals today:

1. Free downloads don’t count as sales

A free download does not move your paid rank.
It does not signal buyer intent.
It does not tell Amazon, “This reader is willing to spend money on this author.”

It tells Amazon, “This reader will take anything that costs nothing.”

That’s a very different data point.

2. Freebie hunters are not your long‑term audience

Readers who download free books tend to:

• collect books they never read
• hop genres without loyalty
• leave fewer reviews
• rarely convert to paid purchases

They are not the readers who sustain an author’s career.

3. Countdown Deals send the signals Amazon actually uses

When a reader buys a discounted book—even at 99 cents—Amazon sees:

• a real sale
• a real conversion
• a real “also bought” connection
• a real ranking movement

These are the signals that feed the recommendation engine.

Free downloads don’t feed that engine.

4. Free only outperforms in one narrow scenario

Free promotions can be powerful when Book 1 is a funnel into a long series and the author has:

• a large, engaged mailing list
• a genre where binge‑reading is common
• a backlist ready to monetize

Outside of that specific strategy, free is mostly noise.

Why the myth persists:

Because “10,000 downloads!” looks impressive in a screenshot.

Because marketers can point to big numbers without discussing conversion.

Because “free” feels like activity, and activity feels like progress—even when it isn’t.

But authors don’t need activity.
Authors need readers.
Authors need sales.
Authors need algorithms that understand who their audience is.

Countdown Deals help with that.
Free promotions usually don’t.

The bottom line:

If your goal is visibility, free can create a temporary spike in attention.

If your goal is sales, ranking, reviews, and long‑term discoverability, a Kindle Countdown Deal is almost always the stronger tool.

And if your experience tells you that free promotions don’t translate into meaningful sales afterward, like we have experienced here at MSI Press, you’re not imagining it. You’re simply seeing the marketplace as it actually works today.

These Tuesday talks reflect real discussions between the management of MSI Press LLC and our own authors or those would-be authors who come through our doors but don't make the cut--yet. If you have a topic that you would like addressed, leave the question in the comment section. Chances are, in our 22 years of publishing first-time and experiences authors, we have had a conversation with one of our authors that we can share with you.

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